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Estimating the U.S. Debt Limit

Introduction The concept of a debt limit in the U.S. is usually identified with the statutory limit that has been in place for the last century (Congressional Budget Office 2017). The statutory limit has never been an effective constraint on

Estimating the Probability of Default at Different Levels of Debt

An alternative to studies that provide a point estimate of the debt limit, are studies that estimate the probability distribution of default at different levels of debt (Botev et al. 2016). These studies measure long run fiscal sustainability, using general