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Setting the Parameters for U.S. Fiscal Stabilization Policy

What is the Rationale for New Fiscal Rules?

  • Alesina and F. Giavazzi (eds.), Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, NBER, The University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
  • Persson, T., and G. Tabellini. 2000. “Political Economics: Explaining Economic Policy”, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
  • Wyplosz, C. 2013. “Fiscal Rules, Theoretical Issues and Historical Experiences”, in A. Alesina, and F. Giovassi (eds), Fiscal Policy After the Financial Crisis, NBER, the University of Chicago Press.
  • Merrifield, J., and B. Poulson. 2016. “Can the Debt Growth be Stopped? Rules Based Policy Options for Addressing the Federal Fiscal Crisis”, with John Merrifield, Lexington Books, New York.
  • Merrifield J., and B Poulson. 2017. Restoring America’s Fiscal Constitution, Lexington Books, Lanham, Maryland.

Debt and Economic Growth

  • Lo, S., and K. Rogoff. 2015. Secular Stagnation, Debt Overhang and Other Rationales for Sluggish Growth, Six Years on, Bank for International Settlements, Working Paper 482, January.
  • Baum, A., C. Checherita – Westphal, and P. Rother. 2013. Debt and Growth: New Evidence for the Euro Area, Journal of International Money and Finance, 32, 809-821.
  • Cecchetti, S., M. Mohanty and F. Zampolli. 2011. The Real Effects of Debt, BIS Working Papers,No. 352, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Chudik, A., K. Mohaddes, H. Pesaran and M. Raissi. 2013. Debt, Inflation and Growth: Robust Estimation of Long-Run Effects in Dynamic Panel Data Models, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper, No. 162.
  • Kumar, M., and J. Woo. 2010. Public Debt and Growth, IMF Working Paper, No. 10/174, International Monetary Fund.
  • Lo, S., and K. Rogoff. 2015. Secular Stagnation, Debt Overhang and Other Rationales for Sluggish Growth, Six Years on, Bank for International Settlements, Working Paper 482, January.
  • Panizza, U. and A. Presbitero. 2014 Public Debt and Economic Growth: Is there a Causal Link? Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 41, pp. 21-41.
  • Reinhart, C.M. and K.S. Rogoff. 2010. Growth in a Time of Debt, American Economic Review, Vol. 100, No. 2, pp. 573-78.

Fiscal Space and Debt Overhang

  • Botev, J., J. Fournier, and A. Mourougane. 2016. A Reassessment of Fiscal Space in OECD Countries, OECD Economics Department Working Papers No, 1352, OECD Publishing, Paris
  • Fournier, J-M., and F. Fall. 2015. “Limits to Government Debt Sustainability”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1229, OECD Publishing, Paris.
  • Ghosh, A. R., J. D. Ostry and M. S. Qureshi. 2013. “Fiscal Space and Sovereign Risk Pricing in a Currency Union”, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 34, pp. 131-163.
  • NBER. 2011. Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies, Working Paper 16782, Cambridge, MA, February.
  • IMF. 2010. Fiscal Space. IMF Staff Position Note SPN/10/11, Washington D.C., September 1.
  • Committee for a Responsible Budget. 2016. Running on Empty? Fiscal Space and the Next Recession, Washington D.C. Sept. 7.
  • OECD. 2016. A Reassessment of Fiscal Space in OECD Countries, Working Paper No. 1352, Paris.

Estimating the U.S. Debt Limit

  • Aguiar, M. and M. Amador. 2013. “Sovereign Debt: A Review”, NBER Working Paper, No. 19388.
  • Congressional Budget Office. 2016b. 2016 Long Term Budget Outlook, Washington DC, July7.
  • Congressional Budget Office. 2017. Federal Debt and the Statutory Limit, Washington, D.C., June.
  • Fournier, J-M., and F. Fall. 2015. “Limits to Government Debt Sustainability”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1229, OECD Publishing, Paris.
  • Merrifield J., and B Poulson. 2017. Restoring America’s Fiscal Constitution, Lexington Books, New York.
  • OECD. 2016. Global Economic Outlook and Interim Economic Outlook, OECD Publishing, Paris
  • Office of Management and Budget. 2017. America First A Blueprint to Make America Great Again, March.
  • Reinhart, C. and K. Rogoff. 2009. This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press.

Setting a Debt Target for the U.S.

  • Fall, F. and J-M. Fournier (2015), “Macroeconomic Uncertainties, Prudent Debt Targets and Fiscal Rules”,
  • OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1230, OECD Publishing, Paris.
  • Fall, F., D. Bloch, J. Fournier, P. Hoeller. 2015. Prudent Debt Targets and Fiscal Frameworks, OECD Policy Paper No. 15, Paris, July.
  • Fournier, J., and F. Fall. 2015. Limits to Government Debt Sustainability, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1229, OECD Publishing, Paris.
  • Merrifield J., and B Poulson. 2017. Restoring America’s Fiscal Constitution, Lexington Books, Lanham, Maryland.

Debt and Stabilization Policy in the U.S.

  • Brookings Institution. 2016. Federal Budget Policy With and Aging Population and Persistently Low Interest Rates, Hutchens Center Working Paper No. 18, Washington, D.C., Oct.
  • Committee for a Responsible Budget. 2016. Running on Empty? Fiscal Space and the Next Recession, Washington D.C. Sept. 7.
  • Congressional Budget Office. 2016a. The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2016 to 2026, Washington DC, (January).
  • Congressional Budget Office. 2016b. 2016 Long Term Budget Outlook, Washington DC, July7.
  • Égert, B. 2010. Fiscal Policy Reaction to the Cycle in the OECD: Pro- or Counter-cyclical?, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 763, OECD Publishing, Paris.
  • Fall, F., D. Bloch, J. Fournir, P. Hoeller. 2015. Prudent Debt Targets and Fiscal Frameworks, OECD Policy Paper No. 15, Paris, July.
  • Finkel, G. 1997. The Economics of the Construction Industry, Armonk, N.Y.: M.E. Sharpe.
  • Fournier, J-M., and F. Fall (2015), “Limits to Government Debt Sustainability”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1229, OECD Publishing, Paris.
  • IMF. 2010. Fiscal Space. IMF Staff Position Note SPN/10/11, Washington D.C., September 1.
  • Lo, S., and K. Rogoff. 2015. Secular Stagnation, Debt Overhang and Other Rationales for Sluggish Growth, Six Years on, Bank for International Settlements, Working Paper 482, January.
  • Merrifield J., and B Poulson. 2017. Restoring America’s Fiscal Constitution, Lexington Books, Lanham, Maryland.
  • NBER. 2011. Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies, Working Paper 16782, Cambridge, MA, February.
  • Nickel, C. and A. Tudyka (2014), “Fiscal Stimulus in Times of High Debt: Reconsidering Multipliers and Twin Deficits”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 46(7), pp. 1313-1344.
  • OECD. 2016. A Reassessment of Fiscal Space in OECD Countries, Working Paper No. 1352, Paris.
  • Röhn, O. 2010. New Evidence on the Private Saving Offset and Ricardian Equivalence, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 762, OECD Publishing, Paris.
  • Turner, D. and F. Spinelli (2013), “The Effect of Government Debt, External Debt and their Interaction on OECD Interest Rates”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1103, OECD Publishing, Paris.
  • Wall Street Journal. 2017e. “Obama’s Debt Interest Bomb”, Review and Outlook, April 10.
  • Taylor, J. 1993. Discretion versus policy rules in practice. Carnegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy. 39: 195–214.
  • Taylor, J. 2000. Reassessing discretionary fiscal policy. The Journal of Economic Perspectives. 14 (3): 21–36.
  • Taylor, J. 2009. Getting Off Track: How Government Actions and Interventions Caused, Prolonged, and Worsened the Financial Crisis. Stanford: Hoover Institution Press.
  • Taylor, J. 2010. Swings in the rules-discretion balance. Conference on the Occasion of the 40th Anniversary of Microeconomic Foundations of Employment and Inflation Theory. New York: Columbia University Press.
  • Taylor, J. 2014. The fed needs to return to monetary rules. Wall Street Journal. (June 27. A13).

Fiscal Imbalance and the Fiscal Gap

  • Auerbach, A. 1997. Quantifying the current U.S. fiscal imbalance, National Tax Journal 50(3): 387-98.
  • Auerbach, A., and W. Gale. 2014. Forgotten but Not Gone: The Long Term Fiscal Imbalance, Washington, D.C., The Brookings Institution.
  • Congressional Budget Office. 2016b. 2016 Long Term Budget Outlook, Washington DC, July7.
  • Keynes, J. 1923. A Tract on Monetary Reform, Chapter 3, London, Macmillan and Company,
  • Kotlikoff, L. 2013. Assessing Fiscal Sustainability, Mercatus Center, George Mason University, Arlington, Virginia.
  • Krugman, P. 2010. In the long run we are all dead, The New York Times, June 25.
  • Merrifield, J., and B. Poulson. 2018.  “New Constitutional Debt Brakes for Euroland Revisited”, Journal of Applied Business and Economics, forthcoming.
  • Miron, J. 2016. U.S. Fiscal Imbalance Over Time This Time is Different, The Cato Institute
  • Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. 2014. OECD Pension Outlook, 2014. https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888933156789.

DOWNLOAD: A Topical Bibliography on Setting the Parameters for a Fiscal Stabilization Policy in the U.S.

A Topical Bibliography on the U.S. Debt Crisis

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